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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162014
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Tropical Depression Sixteen-E has been hanging in there as a
tenacious system despite strong easterly shear in excess of 25 kt.
Yet another burst of deep convection has developed over and west
of the center, yielding intensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from
TAFB, T2.0/30 kt from SAB, and T3.4/34 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT.
However, the overall convective cloud pattern has not changed much
since the last ASCAT overpass yesterday, which indicated surface
winds of near 30 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity will remain
at 30 kt for this advisory.

The depression has continued to accelerate around the southern
periphery of major Hurricane Odile, and the initial motion is
090/11 kt, which is based mainly on microwave satellite fix
positions. The NHC guidance remains in fair agreement that the
depression and its remnants will continue to rotate around the
southern and eastern periphery of Odile during the next couple of
days.  The official forecast track is just an update of the previous
advisory track and lies between a blend of the ECMWF and GFS models.

The strong low-level circulation of Odile, combined with its robust
easterly outflow, is forecast to produce significant shear across
the depression during the next 48 hours. This is expected to
result in the depression degenerating into an open trough within
the next 24-36 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 15.0N 113.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 16.1N 112.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 18.3N 110.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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