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Tropical Storm ODILE (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...ODILE BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 112.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WNW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE
LOS ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.  THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM BAHIA
KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA SOUTH OF PUERTO
SAN ANDRESITO.  THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SOUTH OF LORETO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED
AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO
SOUTH OF HUATABAMPITO HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO
SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO TO SAN FELIPE
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN JOSE DE LAS
PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.7 WEST. ODILE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS MORNING.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH
AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA THROUGH TODAY...AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND INTO NORTHERN MAINLAND MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ODILE
IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.30 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS
OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES
OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN
INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE
EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE COULD STILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.

RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF AROUND 18 INCHES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS
ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AHEAD OF ODILE WILL INCREASE HEAVY RAINS
AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.  THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

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