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Hurricane ODILE (Text)

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HURRICANE ODILE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
2100 UTC SAT SEP 13 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LAZARO SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST AND
LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND FROM
LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ON THE
EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
LORETO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO SAN LAZARO TO LA PAZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 106.2W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  971 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT.......170NE 150SE 160SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 270SE 270SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 106.2W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 106.0W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.0N 107.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 150SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.8N 108.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 21.6N 110.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 120SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 23.0N 112.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 25.0N 114.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 27.0N 116.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 28.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 106.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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