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Hurricane ODILE (Text)

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HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

Satellite imagery indicates that Odile is undergoing rapid
intensification.  Satellite intensity estimates at 00Z were 90 kt,
which is an increase of 35 kt during the last 24 hours.  Since then,
an eye has become apparent in infrared imagery with cloud tops
colder than -80C in the western eyewall.  The initial intensity is
increased to 95 kt...and this could be conservative.

The hurricane has turned to the right and accelerated during the
past several hours.  The initial motion is 335/10, and the motion
over the past 4-5 hours is just west of due north.  Odile should
turn back toward the northwest during the next several hours as it
is steered between a strengthening ridge over the southern United
States and a mid-level low or trough west of the Baja California
peninsula.  The combination of the initial position and motion has
lead to a significant northeastward shift in the track model
guidance, which now calls for the center of Odile to pass near or
over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula from
36-96 hours. Based on this, the new forecast track is shifted 30-50
n mi to the northeast for the entire forecast period, and it lies
just west of Baja California.  The new forecast track is in the
center of the guidance envelope and is in good agreement with the
TVCE consensus model and the Florida State Superensemble.  Further
northeastward adjustments of the track may be necessary if Odile's
northwestward turn occurs later than currently forecast.

Rapid intensification is expected to continue until either the
hurricane undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle or moves over the
wake of cold water left by Hurricane Norbert.  The latter is likely
to occur in about 18 hours.  The forecast peak intensity has been
increased to 110 kt at the upper edge of the guidance envelope, and
it is possible Odile could get stronger than that.  After 18 hours
or so, the center should move over cooler water, with land
interaction expected after about 36 hours.  This should lead to a
steady weakening through the remainder of the forecast period.

The new forecast track requires major changes for the warnings and
watches for Mexico, and a hurricane warning is now in effect for
the southern end of the Baja California peninsula.  If Odile strikes
Baja California as a major hurricane, it will be only the fourth
time since since 1967 that such a hurricane has hit the peninsula.

In addition, moisture from a disturbance over northeastern Mexico
and the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's
circulation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United
States for early next week.   This could result in heavy rains and
life-threatening flash flooding in those areas.  Please see
information from your local weather office for more details.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 17.9N 106.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 19.2N 107.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 21.4N 109.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 23.2N 111.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 24.6N 112.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 26.5N 114.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  18/0000Z 28.0N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  19/0000Z 29.0N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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