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Tropical Storm ODILE (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
200 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2014

Conventional satellite imagery shows a sheared tropical storm with
the center of circulation just beneath the northeastern edge of the
deep convective cloud canopy.  Although the shear appears to have
increased a bit this afternoon, convective spiral banding features
have become better organized, and a blend of the latest Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates reflect this overall improvement.
Subsequently, the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt.  The
intensity forecast remains unchanged for this advisory with the
northeasterly shear relaxing in 24-36 hours.  Through the remaining
portion of the forecast, the global models and the SHIPS intensity
model indicate an upper-wind environment conducive for strengthening
through day 5.  The official intensity forecast shows this
intensification trend with Odile becoming a major hurricane in 3
days.

The initial motion is slightly left of the previous track and is
estimated to be toward the west-southwest or 255/02.  This general
motion, although somewhat erratic, should continue during the
next 12-24 hours at which time Odile should begin a northwestward
motion in response to a mid-level ridge building to the northeast
of the cyclone.  Odile is forecast to maintain this northwestward
track with a gradual increase in forward speed through the
remainder of the forecast period.  The official NHC forecast is
again shifted a bit to the left of the previous forecast track
and splits between the TVCE and GFEX dynamical consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 15.1N 104.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 15.1N 104.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 15.3N 105.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 15.7N 105.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  13/1800Z 16.6N 106.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  14/1800Z 19.4N 110.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  15/1800Z 22.2N 113.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  16/1800Z 24.0N 117.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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