ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 Lowell is well on its way to becoming a post-tropical cyclone. The storm has lacked significant deep convection for nearly 12 hours and, if this trend continues, Lowell will likely be declared a post-tropical cyclone tonight. The initial wind speed remains 35 kt for this advisory based on the latest Dvorak CI number from TAFB. The weakening system is currently over 23 C waters and in a stable air mass. These unfavorable conditions should cause Lowell to degenerate into a remnant low soon. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to persist for several days while it gradually spins down. The storm is moving northwestward at about 6 kt, steered by a low-level ridge to its north. A slight turn toward the west- northwest is expected tomorrow, and that general motion with an increase in forward speed is predicted through the remainder of the forecast period. There remains a considerable spread in the guidance due to model differences in forecasting the strength of the low-level north of Lowell. The GFS shows a more westward track while the ECMWF has a more northwestward motion. The NHC track forecast lies between these scenarios, and is close to the multi- model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 24.0N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 24.5N 127.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 24/1800Z 24.9N 129.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/0600Z 25.3N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1800Z 25.7N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1800Z 26.6N 136.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1800Z 28.0N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/1800Z 29.5N 144.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Dec-2014 12:09:44 UTC