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Hurricane KARINA (Text)

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HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

The eye of Karina has begun to fill during the past few hours, and
deep convection has decreased slightly on the north side of the
cyclone. A blend of the 1800 UTC Dvorak CI- and T-numbers still
yields an initial wind speed estimate of 70 kt.  Since that time,
the cloud pattern of the cyclone has begun to deteriorate,
suggesting that the predicted weakening trend may already be
occurring.  The hurricane is currently crossing the 26 deg C
isotherm and dry air is wrapping around the circulation, as seen in
total precipitable water imagery.  The influence of these
unfavorable thermodynamic factors should cause steady weakening to
remnant low status in 3 to 4 days.  The NHC intensity forecast is
again an update of the previous one and lies close to the
multi-model consensus.

Karina is turning toward the right in the broad southwesterly flow
to the south of Lowell, and the latest initial motion estimate is
055/6. The models are coming into better agreement in showing
Karina moving on a general east-northeasterly path with a decrease
in forward speed before being absorbed into the much larger
circulation of Hurricane Marie in 4 to 5 days.  However, there is
still some guidance that shows Karina interacting with Lowell,
which would result in a west-northwestward motion.  Since most of
the track guidance now favors the absorption of Karina by Marie, the
NHC track forecast has been adjusted eastward and shows the cyclone
becoming stationary at days 3 and 4.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 17.3N 133.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 17.7N 132.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 18.0N 130.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 18.3N 129.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 18.6N 128.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 19.0N 127.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  27/1800Z 19.0N 127.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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