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Tropical Storm KARINA (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Although Dvorak T-numbers no longer directly support 45 knots,
visible satellite images show that Karina still has a vigorous
circulation. An 1807 UTC ASCAT-B overpass missed the low-level
center and the western half of the circulation where stronger
winds could exist, but one 38-kt surface wind vector was indicated
southeast of the center. Assuming that stronger winds could exist
west of the center, the initial intensity is being kept at 45 knots
until we have more solid evidence of weakening.

The outflow of large Tropical Storm Lowell located to the east will
likely induce some moderate shear over Karina, but it should not be
strong enough to weaken the cyclone significantly. Karina most
likely will experience some fluctuations in intensity during the
next 2 to 3 days because of the marginal environment.  After that
time, as Karina gradually becomes pulled northeastward and northward
by the flow around Lowell, it will encounter cooler waters and the
cyclone will likely weaken.

Karina is moving westward at 4 knots. The steering currents are
forecast to collapse, and Karina is expected to drift westward or
even meander for the next 2 to 3 days.  Then, as Lowell passes to
the north, the cyclone should turn northeastward with increased
forward speed within the southwesterly flow associated with the
large circulation of Lowell. The NHC forecast follows the trend
of the dynamical guidance, which unanimously brings Karina
northeastward toward Lowell.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 15.7N 134.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 15.7N 135.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 15.7N 136.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 15.8N 136.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 15.8N 136.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 16.5N 135.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  23/1800Z 18.5N 132.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  24/1800Z 23.5N 129.5W   25 KT  30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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