ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014 Although Karina is producing a little more deep convection than it was earlier this evening, the system has a sheared appearance with the low-level center located near the eastern edge of the deep cloudiness. A pair of ASCAT passes around 0600 UTC showed maximum winds of around 35 kt to the west of the center, therefore, the initial intensity is held at that value. This wind speed estimate is also in fair agreement with Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT. Only slight strengthening is forecast as the environmental conditions are not expected to change much during the next several days, with the shear predicted to remain moderate and sea surface temperatures marginal. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly lower than the previous one to be closer to the latest guidance. Karina is moving just south of due west at about 9 kt. A west to southwest motion is forecast during the next 2 to 3 days while the storm remains steered by the subtropical ridge to the north of the system. Beyond that time, the cyclone is likely to stall or move erratically when the steering currents significantly weaken in response to developing tropical disturbances both to the west and east of Karina. Although a considerable amount of spread in the models exist, they do agree on this general scenario. The NHC track forecast lies fairly close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 17.9N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 17.6N 128.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 17.1N 130.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 16.4N 131.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 16.1N 132.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 16.1N 133.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 16.1N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 16.1N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
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