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Tropical Storm JULIO (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102014
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014

After a decrease in the overall thunderstorm activity earlier today,
a new burst of deep convection has redeveloped near the center. The
outflow remains fair in all quadrants suggesting that there is
little wind shear over the cyclone. Based on satellite estimates
from TAFB and SAB of T3.5 on the Dvorak scale, the initial
intensity is been kept at 55 knots. Given the current structure in
both conventional satellite and microwave data, as well as the
prevailing low shear, it is very likely that Julio will reach
hurricane status within the next 6 to 12 hours. Some additional
strengthening is then forecast. However, despite the
expected light shear, the strengthening will be limited by the
cooler ocean ahead of Julio, and the NHC forecast calls for
weakening beyond 36 hours. This is consistent with the intensity
models which have an upper intensity limit of 80 knots by the
SHIPS model.

The best estimate of the initial motion is 285 degrees at 13 knots.
Julio is well embedded within the easterly flow around the periphery
of the subtropical ridge. Global models keep a strong ridge to
the north of the cyclone for the next 2 to 3 days, and forecast some
slight erosion of the western portion of the ridge thereafter. This
pattern should keep Julio on a general west-northwest track through
the forecast period. Although the NHC forecast is similar to
the previous one, it has been adjusted slightly northward to be
consistent with the multi-model consensus TVCE and be more centered
within the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 14.4N 127.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 14.9N 129.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 15.5N 133.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 16.3N 136.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 17.0N 139.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 18.0N 144.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 20.0N 149.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 22.0N 154.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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