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Tropical Storm JULIO (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102014
200 AM PDT MON AUG 04 2014

Satellite images indicate that, although that the cyclone has a
large area of associated deep convection, it is somewhat lopsided
with most of the thunderstorms activity west of the center.
However, Dvorak estimates from TAFB/SAB are both at 35 kt, and
two ASCAT passes from a couple of hours ago indicate maximum winds
of 35-40 kt.  The initial wind speed is, therefore, set to 40 kt in
agreement with the ASCAT data.

Only a gradual intensification of Julio is shown over the next 36
hours due to a continuation of moderate northeasterly shear that is
currently affecting the cyclone.  While there is some suggestion
that this shear could abate after this time, there is enough
uncertainty to only show steady strengthening.  At long range,
the cyclone will be close to the typical sharp SST gradient over
the eastern Pacific, as well as possibly a cold wake from Iselle,
so no intensity change is indicated at that time.  The latest NHC
forecast is only slightly higher than the previous one, between the
latest model consensus and the Florida State Superensemble.

ASCAT data show that Julio is moving westward at about 11 kt.  A
strong ridge over the eastern Pacific is expected to steer the
storm westward at a slightly faster forward speed for the next
several days.  Julio should gradually gain some latitude by the end
of the forecast period due to the orientation of the ridge, and
model guidance has shifted northward at long range on this cycle.
The NHC track forecast is also adjusted northward, but is still a
bit south of the model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 13.4N 118.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 13.3N 120.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 13.2N 122.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 13.3N 125.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 13.6N 128.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 14.4N 133.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  08/0600Z 15.2N 139.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  09/0600Z 16.0N 145.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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