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Tropical Depression FAUSTO (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062014
200 AM PDT WED JUL 09 2014

Fausto has continued to lose organization overnight.  The deep
convection associated with the tropical cyclone has become
disorganized and appears to be separated from the center that was
tracked in the last few visible satellite images.  Recent ASCAT
data suggest that the circulation has become elongated from
northeast to southwest and that it has possibly become an open
trough of low pressure.  The highest believable winds from the
ASCAT passes were 25 to 30 kt to the northeast of the alleged
center.  Based on these data, the initial intensity is reduced to
30 kt.

Despite being located in a low shear environment and over warm
water, Fausto has likely weakened during the past 24 hours due to
the entrainment of dry mid-level air.  Although Fausto is forecast
to remain over warm water and in low shear for another 24 hours,
poor thermodynamic factors should prevent restrengthening.  After
that time, westerly shear is forecast to increase which should
cause the final demise of Fausto, if it does not occur sooner.  One
very possible scenario is for the circulation to dissipate and
become an open trough within the next 24 hours.  This solution
is generally favored by the GFS and ECMWF models.

The somewhat uncertain initial motion estimate is 285 degrees at 16
kt. Fausto should continue moving west-northwestward to westward
during the next several days to the south of a strong low- to
mid-level ridge.  The track guidance agrees on this scenario but has
shifted southward this cycle.  Since the updated NHC intensity
forecast predicts a weaker and shallower system, it is more likely
that Fausto or its remnants will move more westward.  As a result,
the NHC track has been adjusted southward.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 11.4N 128.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 11.9N 130.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 12.5N 134.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 13.0N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 13.5N 140.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/0600Z 14.5N 145.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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