ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 04 2014 Even though Douglas has been devoid of deep convection for about six hours, a 1716 UTC ASCAT overpass indicated a patch of wind near tropical-storm strength north-northwest of the center. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. With the cyclone now over 23-degree C water and embedded in a dry and very stable air mass, it seems unlikely that any deep convection would re-develop. Douglas is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low within 12 hours, and the circulation of the decaying cyclone should gradually spin down during the next couple of days. The initial motion estimate is 305/05, a little to the left than before. A low-level ridge of high pressure west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula should keep the cyclone moving west-northwestward or northwestward until dissipation in about 3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 21.8N 118.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 22.4N 119.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/1800Z 23.3N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/0600Z 24.1N 122.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1800Z 24.9N 123.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain NNNN
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