ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 04 2014 Douglas consists of a tight swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small curved band of deep convection to the east of the center. NHC had estimated that the peak winds were 30 knots, but a recent ASCAT-B pass shows numerous 35-kt wind vectors associated with the circulation of Douglas. The initial intensity has thus been adjusted to 35 knots. This does not mean that Douglas has restrengthened. Instead, the lack of data earlier led us to a lower wind estimate. Nevertheless, the cyclone is over 24 degree Celsius water and weakening to a remnant low in a day or so is still anticipated. The initial motion is toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 5 knots. This general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 to 48 hours with a gradual turn to west as the subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone builds westward. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 21.3N 117.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 21.8N 118.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 22.4N 119.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1800Z 23.5N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0600Z 24.0N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0600Z 25.5N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Dec-2014 12:09:30 UTC