ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2014 After an earlier burst of convection in the northern semicircle, thunderstorm activity has been gradually waning over the past few hours with cloud tops warming during the normal convective maximum period. However, TRMM and AMSU microwave satellite data indicate that Douglas has maintained a tight low-level circulation, including a shallow eye-like feature, so the initial intensity is being maintained at 35 kt, which is consistent with satellite estimates of 35 kt from TAFB and 34 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT. Douglas is moving slowly northwestward, or 315/03 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Douglas is expected to steadily weaken and gradually become a more shallow vortex that will be steered toward the west-northwest or west by low-level trade wind flow on the south side of the Pacific subtropical ridge. The official NHC forecast track is basically just an update of the previous advisory track and lies close to but just south of the consensus model TVCE. Douglas will gradually weaken throughout the forecast period as the cyclone ingests cooler and more stable air, and also moves over sub-24C sea-surface temperatures by 24 hours. Douglas should become a depression later today, possibly even this morning, and degenerate further into a remnant low by Friday. The NHC intensity forecast is consistent with most of the available intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 20.4N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 20.7N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 21.1N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 21.6N 118.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0600Z 22.3N 119.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0600Z 23.4N 122.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0600Z 24.3N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Dec-2014 12:09:30 UTC