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Hurricane CRISTINA (Text)

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HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
200 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014

Satellite images indicate that Cristina has rapidly intensified
during the past several hours.  Convection around the center has
become more intense and symmetric, with the eye also becoming better
defined and warmer.  Dvorak estimates range from 102-112 kt, and 105
kt is chosen as the initial wind speed.  Cirrus clouds approaching
the storm from the southwest suggest an increase in shear is coming
sooner rather than later, so only a small intensification is
predicted today.  A weakening trend should begin on Friday due to
increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters, with Cristina
likely transitioning into a remnant low over the cool eastern
Pacific waters by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is higher than
the previous one in the short term to account for the initial
intensity, but is otherwise unchanged beyond 36 hours.

Cristina is moving at 295/7 around the southern periphery of a
mid-level high over Mexico.  A west-northwestward to northwestward
motion is forecast during the next few days while the hurricane
remains steered by the high.  Cristina should turn toward the west
and decelerate over the weekend when the weakening cyclone becomes
more steered by the low-level flow.  Although there is still some
model disagreement at long range, the model consensus is almost
unchanged from the previous one, and the new NHC forecast is
basically an update of the last prediction.

Cristina is the earliest second major hurricane formation in the
eastern Pacific since reliable records began in 1971, eclipsing the
former record of Darby (2010) by 13 days.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 16.2N 106.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 16.7N 107.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  13/0600Z 17.5N 108.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  13/1800Z 18.3N 110.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  14/0600Z 19.0N 111.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  15/0600Z 19.7N 112.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  16/0600Z 20.0N 114.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  17/0600Z 20.0N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

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