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Tropical Storm BORIS (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022014
800 PM PDT TUE JUN 03 2014

Boris has a rather disorganized appearance on satellite imagery,
and consists of a couple of clusters of very deep convection near
the coastline.  Although it is questionable as to whether the
cyclone is still a tropical storm, the current intensity is
maintained at 35 kt as a precaution since the convection is still
strong.  This is also in agreement with a Dvorak Current Intensity
estimate from TAFB.  The cyclone will weaken after crossing the
coastline, presumably in a few hours, and the surface circulation is
expected to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of southeastern
Mexico in 36 hours - if not sooner.

Although the center has been very difficult to locate on
geostationary imagery, an AMSR2 microwave image from earlier today
provided a fairly good center fix.  This enabled some adjustments
to the working best track of Boris, and extrapolation into this
evening suggests that the storm has moved closer to the coast than
earlier estimated.  The cyclone should continue to move slowly
northward on the western side of a mid-level ridge that extends
westward from an anticyclone centered over the western Caribbean
Sea.  The official forecast track is a little faster than the
previous one, and moves the center of Boris over southeastern
Mexico over the next day or so.  This is close to the latest
dynamical model consensus.

As the weakening tropical cyclone moves inland, it is likely to
continue to produce very heavy rainfall.  These rains will cause
life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides over the mountainous
regions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Chiapas over the next
couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 15.7N  94.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 16.3N  93.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  05/0000Z 16.8N  93.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  05/1200Z 17.4N  93.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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