ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022014 800 AM PDT TUE JUN 03 2014 The depression is not particularly well organized this morning with microwave and visible images suggesting that multiple low-level centers are rotating within the circulation envelope. A mean of these swirls suggest the center is on the south side of a burst of convection. Despite satellite intensity estimates of tropical-storm strength, the lack of the low-level organization leads me to believe the system is still a depression, and 30 kt will stay the initial intensity. Some strengthening is possible before landfall in a day or so, although significant strengthening is not expected due to land interaction and the poor initial structure. The new NHC prediction is the same as the previous one, a bit above most of the guidance. Best estimate of initial motion is north at 4 kt. A mid- to upper-level low west of the depression should generally provide a southerly steering for the next couple of days. The model guidance, however, is really struggling for this system with some reliable models again showing the cyclone south of Mexico for 5 days. The interaction of the depression, upper-low, and a weak system over the Bay of Campeche is really producing a complicated scenario. The official NHC forecast is just a little slower and left of the previous one, but is highly uncertain. Regardless of where the center is or the exact track, the main story is the potential for extreme flooding over southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days. 30 inches (750 mm) of rain or more are possible in the states of Oaxaca and Chiapas, which will likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of mountaineous terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 14.6N 94.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 15.2N 94.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 15.8N 94.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 16.4N 94.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/1200Z 17.0N 94.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1200Z 18.0N 94.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Dec-2014 12:09:26 UTC