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Tropical Storm AMANDA (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014
800 PM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014

Amanda has organized quickly over the past few hours. Deep
convection now wraps more than halfway around the estimated center
position, and an AMSR-2 microwave pass a few hours ago showed the
development of a mid-level eye feature. Based on the latest ADT
estimate from UW-CIMSS the initial intensity has been increased to
50 kt. Now that Amanda is developing inner-core structure, it seems
likely that the cyclone will be able to take advantage of the
favorable environment and intensify, possibly rapidly, during the
next day or so. The SHIPS model shows the shear remaining 10 kt or
less for the next 36 hours, and the SHIPS RI index shows a 58
percent probability of a 30-kt intensity increase in the next 24
hours. The official intensity forecast has been adjusted sharply
upward and shows Amanda becoming a hurricane by 24 hours. A peak in
intensity is shown at 48 hours, however, it is possible that
Amanda could strengthen more than indicated here. After 48 hours,
the shear will begin to increase ahead of an approaching trough and
the cyclone will be moving over somewhat cooler waters, which should
result in gradual weakening. The NHC forecast is a little above most
of the guidance through 24 hours and is close to the IVCN intensity
consensus after that time.

The initial motion estimate is 290/04, as the cyclone continues
to move slowly around the southwestern side of a weakening
mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. This slow west-northwestward
motion is expected to continue for the next 24 to 36 hours. A turn
toward the northwest is shown around 48 hours, with a gradual
northward acceleration expected late in the period as the ridge
restrengthens to the east and a mid/upper-level trough approaches
from the west. The track model guidance has trended somewhat faster
this cycle, especially by day 5, and the official forecast has been
adjusted in that direction. Otherwise, the new NHC track is largely
an update of the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 11.2N 109.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 11.4N 109.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 11.7N 110.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 11.9N 111.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 12.2N 111.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 13.2N 111.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 15.0N 112.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 17.0N 112.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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