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Hurricane GONZALO (Text)

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HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
800 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2014

...GONZALO MOVING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN....
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 64.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ANGUILLA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE EYE OF HURRICANE
GONZALO WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND
NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN NEAR LATITUDE 19.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
IS FORECAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
GONZALO WILL MOVE CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC TODAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
105 MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THIS MORNING.

RAINFALL...RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH GONZALO ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
RAPIDLY TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...BRITISH AND U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THOSE ISLANDS.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF
PUERTO RICO TODAY. SWELLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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