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Hurricane GONZALO (Text)


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HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1100 PM AST THU OCT 16 2014

...GONZALO MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD BERMUDA...
...LIKELY TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE
ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 67.5W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A CONTINUED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF
GONZALO WILL BE NEAR BERMUDA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...220
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  GONZALO IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST
ON FRIDAY...BUT GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN
IT MOVES NEAR BERMUDA.  STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE
FRIDAY.

RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER.  TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA IS 943
MB...27.85 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA ON
FRIDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF
HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN AT THE
SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA.  NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...AND THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD.  SWELLS WILL
REACH THE REST OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA ON
FRIDAY.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Dec-2014 12:09:18 UTC