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Hurricane GONZALO (Text)

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
500 PM AST THU OCT 16 2014

...GONZALO TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE POSSIBLE ON
BERMUDA ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 68.2W
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.2 WEST.  GONZALO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H.  A CONTINUED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
GONZALO WILL BE NEAR BERMUDA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GONZALO IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR
HURRICANES...AND ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH GONZALO THROUGH TONIGHT.
SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY...BUT GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE
A DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR BERMUDA.  STEADY WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA ON
FRIDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF
HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN AT THE
SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA.  NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...AND THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD.  SWELLS WILL
REACH THE REST OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA
THROUGH FRIDAY.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

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