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Hurricane GONZALO (Text)


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HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1100 PM AST MON OCT 13 2014

...GONZALO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NORTHEAST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 63.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NNW OF ANGUILLA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTEN HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING
FOR ST. MAARTEN WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...AND ST.
CROIX HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS AND
NEVIS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. MARTIN
* ANGUILLA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. THOMAS AND ST. JOHN IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED
BY NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE
63.4 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL PASS
JUST NORTHEAST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MOVE
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC NORTH OF PUERTO RICO ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GONZALO COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12
INCHES POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE BRITISH AND
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF
PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

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