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Hurricane GONZALO (Text)

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
500 PM AST MON OCT 13 2014

...GONZALO BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING LIKELY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 62.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM ESE OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* ANGUILLA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND
GUADELOUPE RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST.
GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT...BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC OCEAN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND GONZALO COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY
WHEN IT IS LOCATED OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS
984 MB...29.06 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS
EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY. NOTE THAT
WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS
ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THIS
ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12
INCHES POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE BRITISH AND
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD. SWELLS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE U.S.
AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS EVENING AND WILL REACH THE NORTHERN
COAST OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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