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Hurricane GONZALO (Text)

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HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
0900 UTC TUE OCT 14 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO...
VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MAARTEN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ANGUILLA TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANGUILLA
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N  64.4W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE  50SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  75SE  75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N  64.4W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  64.0W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 21.0N  65.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 22.7N  67.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 24.1N  68.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 25.4N  68.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 28.9N  67.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 34.5N  64.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 43.5N  56.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N  64.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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