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Hurricane GONZALO (Text)

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HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
2100 UTC MON OCT 13 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* ANGUILLA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  62.9W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE  40SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  62.9W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N  62.5W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.8N  64.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  40SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 20.5N  65.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 22.2N  67.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 23.8N  68.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 26.3N  68.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 30.0N  66.4W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 35.0N  62.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N  62.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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