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Tropical Storm GONZALO (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
2100 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* DESIRADE
* LES SAINTES
* MARIE GALANTE
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTIN
* SABA
* ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. KITTS
* NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N  59.5W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N  59.5W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N  59.0W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.5N  61.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.9N  63.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.9N  65.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.0N  66.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.9N  67.9W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 22.6N  68.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 24.5N  68.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N  59.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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