| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

---

Hurricane GONZALO (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1100 PM AST THU OCT 16 2014

The latest hurricane hunter mission into Gonzalo found peak
flight-level winds of 136 kt, with SFMR values of 107 kt.  A blend
of these winds gives a surface wind speed estimate of about 120 kt
for the current intensity, a bit lower than before.  This slight
weakening is also suggested by the latest satellite pictures, which
show that the eye has become less distinct.

No significant change in strength is forecast for the next 12
hours while Gonzalo remains over warm water with little shear,
although some fluctuations are possible due to internal eyewall
cycle dynamics.  A more steady weakening is expected by late
tomorrow since the hurricane will be moving over substantially
cooler SSTs.  However, any weakening is probably too late to spare
Bermuda, with almost all of the guidance showing the system as a
major hurricane as it moves nearby.  In 36-48 hours, shear is
forecast to increase dramatically which should continue the
weakening process, and start extratropical transition over cold
waters.  The NHC forecast is about the same as the previous
interpolated forecast, and follows the trend of the intensity
consensus. Extratropical transition is still shown at day 3,
although it could be close to losing tropical characteristics
just after 48 hours.

Gonzalo is accelerating toward the north-northeast, now moving at
about 12 kt.  Global models are in good agreement on the hurricane
entering the flow ahead of a deep-layer trough over the eastern
United States, and this pattern is expected to cause Gonzalo to
accelerate further toward the north-northeast during the next 48
hours. All of the reliable guidance show Gonzalo passing over or
within 30 nm to the west of the island, and little change has been
made to the forecast track through 2 days.  Gonzalo should race
northeastward and east-northeastward as an extratropical cyclone
over the far north Atlantic.

Significant coastal flooding on Bermuda is likely if Gonzalo
continues on the current NHC forecast track.  Although specific
amounts cannot be forecast for Gonzalo, Hurricane Fabian produced an
estimated 10 feet of storm surge when it moved over Bermuda as a
major hurricane in 2003, and similar values could occur with
Gonzalo.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 28.0N  67.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 29.7N  66.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 32.5N  64.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 36.4N  62.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 42.0N  57.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  20/0000Z 52.0N  39.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  21/0000Z 56.5N  12.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN