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Tropical Storm BERTHA (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2014

After Bertha's cloud pattern became a little better organized
earlier today, there has been little change in its overall
appearance over the past several hours.  There are limited banding
features over the eastern semicircle of the circulation, and the
deep convection is a little ragged-looking.  The upper-level outflow
is becoming a little better defined, but there is still some
northwesterly shear over the system.  The current intensity is kept
at 40 kt based on earlier observations from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft.  The numerical guidance has become a little less bullish
on future strengthening, but the Decay-SHIPS model still calls for
the cyclone to become a hurricane in 60-72 hours, as does the
official forecast.  It should be noted, however, that the intensity
model consensus no longer predicts Bertha to become a hurricane.

Based on an earlier center fix from the aircraft, the working best
track has been adjusted a little to the east of the previous
estimates.  The center location is not obvious on the latest
visible imagery, and the initial motion estimate is a somewhat
uncertain 325/16 kt.  The track forecast for the next 48 hours or
so is slightly complicated by a low- to mid-level disturbance that
is currently near Florida.  The U.K. Met. Office global model
forecast shows Bertha interacting with this disturbance and
moving a little closer to the United States east coast than earlier
runs.  Other global models such as the GFS do not show as much
interaction and keep Bertha farther offshore.  The new official
track forecast has been nudged a little to the left of the previous
one and is very close to a consensus of the latest GFS and ECMWF
solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 23.3N  73.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 25.8N  73.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 29.0N  74.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 32.6N  73.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 35.7N  71.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 40.5N  63.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 46.0N  53.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  08/1800Z 50.0N  44.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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