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Tropical Storm RAYMOND (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
2100 UTC SUN OCT 20 2013
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 101.8W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  60SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 101.8W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 101.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.9N 101.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.3N 101.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.6N 101.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.8N 101.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.5N 102.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 16.0N 104.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 15.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 101.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
 
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