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Tropical Storm RAYMOND (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 29 2013
 
A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERSIST TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTER...BUT RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ASCAT DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ILL DEFINED AND
STRETCHED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT BASED ON THE
ASCAT DATA AND IS CORROBORATED BY A BLEND OF FINAL-T AND CURRENT
INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE ADT.  THE SHIPS MODEL
DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR MAY HAVE LET UP JUST A LITTLE
BIT TODAY...WHICH IS ALLOWING RAYMOND TO MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN EARNEST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IT WILL BE HARDER AND HARDER FOR
RAYMOND TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WHILE IT MOVES OVER
COOLER WATER AND TOWARD DRIER AIR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS
RAYMOND ON A STEADY WEAKENING TREND...AND THE CYCLONE COULD BE A
REMNANT LOW WITHIN 36 HOURS.  DISSIPATION IS INDICATED BY DAY
3...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK
CIRCULATION CENTER COULD LAST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.

RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT RAYMOND HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST...OR 020/5 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BUT ONCE THE SYSTEM BECOMES DECOUPLED BY
THE SHEAR...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL LIKELY DRIFT NORTHWARD OR
MEANDER WITHIN WEAK STEERING FLOW.  THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE...AND NOT TOO DIFFERENT
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/2100Z 18.5N 116.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 19.2N 116.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 19.9N 115.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  31/0600Z 20.3N 115.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/1800Z 20.5N 115.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
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