ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 29 2013 THE RAPID WEAKENING OF RAYMOND APPEARS TO HAVE TEMPORARILY SLOWED THIS MORNING AS A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE DATA REVEALS THAT THE CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS DUE TO 25-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FINAL-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT MAINTAINING AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 50 KT. THE WEAKENING PROCESS SHOULD RESUME SHORTLY AND CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE RAYMOND REMAINS IN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MOVES OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW SHORTLY THEREAFTER. RECENT CENTER FIXES FROM SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT RAYMOND IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM MEXICO AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IS RATHER WEAK...SO ONCE RAYMOND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM IT IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCE CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 17.6N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 18.3N 116.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 19.2N 116.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 19.8N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/0600Z 20.0N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0600Z 20.0N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:39 UTC