ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 800 PM PDT MON OCT 28 2013 RAYMOND IS SHOWING THE AFFECTS OF 25-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS DECREASED DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE REMAINING CONVECTION NOW IN A RAGGED BAND ABOUT 50-80 N MI FROM THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF FINAL-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AS WELL AS CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/5. RAYMOND IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. WHILE RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR APART... THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO KEEP RAYMOND MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE FORWARD SPEED...WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGAIN BEING FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE NEW FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES RAYMOND INTO INCREASING SHEAR...OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND INTO DRIER AIR. THE CYCLONE IS THUS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS DISSIPATING BY 96 HOURS...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 17.2N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 17.9N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 18.9N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 19.6N 115.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 20.1N 114.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0000Z 20.5N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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