ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 200 PM PDT SUN OCT 27 2013 RAYMOND HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...WITH THE EYE CLEARING OUT IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND T4.8/85 KT FROM THE ADT AT 18Z...AND GIVEN THAT THE PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED EVEN IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO THE UPPER BOUND OF THE ESTIMATES. RAYMOND SHOULD BE ABLE TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES TO ABOUT 20 KT. AFTER THAT TIME...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS... FOLLOWED BY MORE RAPID WEAKENING WHEN THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE HOSTILE. SINCE RAYMOND STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...THE DEEP-LAYER STEERING SHOULD ALLOW IT TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH THAN INDICATED IN EARLIER FORECASTS. IRONICALLY...THIS WILL MOVE THE CYCLONE INTO A HIGHER-SHEAR AND LOWER-SST ENVIRONMENT MORE QUICKLY...AND THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST NOW SHOWS A MORE SUDDEN DROP OFF IN THE WIND FORECAST AFTER 36 HOURS. RAYMOND COULD BE A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AND DISSIPATED BY DAY 5. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. RAYMOND APPEARS TO BE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD NOW THAT THE LARGE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA IS SHUNTING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EASTWARD OVER MEXICO. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 305/8 KT...AND THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD BY 24-36 HOURS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH. ONCE ALL THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED AWAY IN A FEW DAYS...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS LIKELY TO DRIFT NORTHWARD OR BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES TO THE EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE IN DEFERENCE TO THE GFS...ECMWF...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 14.5N 116.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 15.2N 117.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 16.4N 117.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 17.3N 117.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 17.9N 116.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 18.5N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 31/1800Z 18.5N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:39 UTC