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Tropical Storm RAYMOND (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
800 PM PDT WED OCT 23 2013
 
ALTHOUGH RAYMOND DOES NOT RESEMBLE A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON IR IMAGES
TONIGHT...THERE IS STILL A VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A
LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE 
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN...THE
WINDS HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO 40 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. MY BEST GUESS
IS THAT RAYMOND WILL RE-INTENSIFY A LITTLE IN A DAY OR SO...SINCE
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS REVERSE THE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT INTO A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN. IN
ADDITION...RAYMOND IS MOVING TOWARD A WARMER OCEAN. WITH THIS IN
MIND...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION
BEYOND 24 HOURS. 

THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF RAYMOND EXPANDED AND HAS FORCED THE
CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8
KNOTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY EVEN MORE...AND THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL KEEP THE CYCLONE
TRAPPED ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONLY BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL RAYMOND LIKELY BEGIN TO GRADUALLY GAIN
LATITUDE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS...BUT IS HEAVILY BASED ON THE FLOW PATTERN WHICH BOTH THE
RELIABLE GFS AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS ARE PREDICTING.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0300Z 14.7N 104.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 14.5N 105.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 14.3N 107.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 14.0N 109.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 13.5N 111.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 13.0N 116.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 13.0N 118.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 14.5N 120.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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