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Tropical Storm RAYMOND (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013
 
RAYMOND HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY. THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH A BAND OF COLD CONVECTIVE
TOPS WRAPPING AROUND THE THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T3.5
FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM JUST BEFORE 1600 UTC
SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 55 KT AT SYNOPTIC TIME. HOWEVER...AN EYE
FEATURE HAS SINCE BEEN DEVELOPING IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...AND
THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION...AND THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS RAYMOND REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH SOON...AND PEAKS
THE SYSTEM AT 85 KT FROM 24 THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT RAYMOND COULD GET STRONG THAN THIS IF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
CONTINUES. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM THROUGH 36 HOURS
AND NEAR A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM AFTER THAT TIME. THIS
FORECAST IS A QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
AIDS...SINCE THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS BOTH SHOW WEAKENING AFTER
MOVING THE CENTER OF RAYMOND INLAND.
 
A BLEND OF RECENT FIXES AND THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 340/06...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. RAYMOND SHOULD TURN SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. AFTER THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT...STEERING
CURRENTS WILL WEAKEN ON DAYS 2 AND 3...WITH A SLOW AND ERRATIC
MOTION LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. CONSIDERABLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN IN THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY CONCERNING HOW CLOSE THE CENTER
WILL GET TO THE COAST...AND WHETHER LANDFALL WILL OCCUR. THE HWRF
AND GFDL NOW BOTH SHOW THE CYCLONE MOVING INLAND BY 36 HOURS...
WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THE CENTER OF RAYMOND VERY CLOSE
TO THE COAST AROUND THAT TIME. THE NHC TRACK DOES NOT SHOW
LANDFALL...BUT HAS BEEN NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF
THE TVCE CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE WEAKENING STEERING CURRENTS AND THE
LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE
TRACK...AND WHETHER THE CENTER OF RAYMOND WILL REACH THE COAST...
REMAINS QUITE LOW...AND ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.
 
GIVEN THE NEW NHC FORECAST AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF
RAYMOND...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS.
 
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE CENTER OF RAYMOND MOVES INLAND...HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/2100Z 15.6N 101.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 15.9N 101.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 16.3N 101.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 16.6N 101.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 16.8N 101.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  23/1800Z 16.5N 102.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  24/1800Z 16.0N 104.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  25/1800Z 15.5N 107.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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