ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122013 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 07 2013 A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION BRIEFLY REDEVELOPED NEAR LORENA... PROBABLY JUST AN ARTIFACT OF THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM PERIOD...AND THE CENTER IS AGAIN BECOMING EXPOSED ON FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY. DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST 30 KT IS A GOOD INITIAL INTENSITY. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO MORE STABLE AIR...IT SHOULD LOSE ANY SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE LATEST NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE LATEST CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. LORENA WILL PROBABLY BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 12H. BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 300/5. LORENA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE IT GETS CAUGHT IN RATHER LIGHT LOW-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS. THE LATEST FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE NET MOTION AFTER 12H...AND THE SMALL CIRCULATION SHOULD DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...IF NOT SOONER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 23.8N 111.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 24.0N 112.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 08/1200Z 24.0N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/0000Z 24.0N 112.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:30 UTC