ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122013 800 AM PDT THU SEP 05 2013 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF A LARGE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST 30-35 KT...AND BECAUSE OF THE POOR SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 30 KT. THE INITIAL STRUCTURE AND THE PROXIMITY TO SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO ARE LIKELY TO KEEP THE CYCLONE FROM INTENSIFYING TOO QUICKLY. WHILE THE STATISTICAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS SHOW THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A STRONG TROPICAL STORM IN A FEW DAYS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST MUCH STRENGTHENING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE LATEST FORECAST IS KEPT BASICALLY THE SAME THE AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND STAYS BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. BASED PRIMARILY ON EXTRAPOLATION...THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/6. A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD ON THIS CYCLE...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS MOVED IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT IS STILL SOUTH OF THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 18.0N 106.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 19.0N 107.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 20.3N 108.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 21.4N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 22.3N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 22.9N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 23.5N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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