ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013 THE STRUCTURE OF IVO HAS EVOLVED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS GAINED CURVATURE AND BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC...THE INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECREASING. GIVEN THESE MIXED SIGNALS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 40 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH A SHIP REPORT OF 40 KT TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT. IVO IS MOVING OVER A SHARP SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND IT SHOULD BE OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS NARROWING...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE BY TONIGHT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WHEN IT WILL BE OVER SSTS NEAR 20C AND IN A STABLE ENVIRONMENT. IVO HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...AS EXPECTED...AND HAS SPED UP SOME...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 345/12. A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE STORM MOVES TOWARD A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A SIGNIFICANT SLOW DOWN IS FORECAST BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS ONCE THE CYCLONE BECOMES SHALLOW AND IS INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD THIS CYCLE...AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IVO IS SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 22.4N 112.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 23.6N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 25.3N 114.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 26.8N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/0600Z 27.6N 115.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0600Z 28.3N 116.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:27 UTC