ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 02 2013 GIL HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH THE COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION SHRINKING. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A TONGUE OF DRIER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION...WHICH IS LIKELY THE CAUSE OF THE DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES...BUT THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS GIL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN SIMILAR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS...SLOW WEAKENING IS PREDICTED WHEN GIL MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHEAR. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 11 KT ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT...A HEADING A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST IS ANTICIPATED AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE LATEST NHC FORECAST LIES VERY NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 14.6N 127.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 14.7N 128.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 14.9N 130.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 15.1N 131.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 15.0N 133.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 14.5N 136.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 14.0N 139.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 14.0N 142.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:24 UTC