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Post-Tropical Cyclone COSME (Text)

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POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013
200 PM PDT THU JUN 27 2013

COSME CONSISTS OF A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  PASSIVE WIND DATA FROM
A SERIES OF SSM/IS OVERPASSES SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL-STORM FORCE.  BASED ON THIS AND THE LACK OF
DEEP CONVECTION...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT COSME HAS DEGENERATED TO A
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/15.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN
TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT IS STEERED BY A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THE REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO SLOW
THEIR FORWARD SPEED BY 72-96 HR AS THEY APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON COSME BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH 
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER 
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/2100Z 20.9N 122.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  28/0600Z 21.3N 124.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  28/1800Z 21.5N 127.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  29/0600Z 21.5N 130.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/1800Z 21.5N 132.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1800Z 21.5N 137.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/1800Z 22.0N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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