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Hurricane COSME (Text)

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HURRICANE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013
800 AM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT COSME HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A WELL-DEFINED
CONVECTIVE BAND PATTERN AND OCCASIONAL APPEARANCES OF AN EYE. 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 65 KT.
IN ADDITION...A RECENT AMSU OVERPASS SHOWED AN ALMOST-CLOSED
EYEWALL WITH AN ACCOMPANYING INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 67 KT.  BASED ON
ALL OF THE ABOVE...COSME IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE.

COSME HAS JOGGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY WITH
A 12-HOUR MOTION OF 305/16.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  COSME IS EXPECTED TO TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WESTWARD-EXPANDING MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES.  AFTER THAT TIME...COSME SHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLY
WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW AS IT WEAKENS.  THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS PARALLEL TO...BUT NORTH OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK
BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION.  THE NEW TRACK LIES NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHICH IS MORE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED THAN NORMAL.

COSME IS IN A LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK HAS IT REACHING 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
ABOUT 12 HOURS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS SHOWS SOME
STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS...FOLLWED BY STEADY
WEAKENING OVER DECREASING SSTS.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 24-36 HOURS...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT
72 HOURS...AND SUBSEQUENTLY DECAY INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 96
HOURS.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
 
THE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE PROVIDED BY
THE TAFB IS THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL
FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 17.7N 110.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 18.2N 112.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 18.9N 114.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 19.6N 117.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 20.4N 119.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 21.5N 125.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  29/1200Z 21.5N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/1200Z 21.5N 134.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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