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Tropical Storm INGRID (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013
1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013
 
AFTER STRENGTHENING EARLIER...THE INTENSITY OF INGRID APPEARS TO
HAVE LEVELED OFF. THE LAST PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT BEFORE 00Z WAS 993 MB...AND THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT GOTTEN TOO MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED...LIKELY DUE
TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUING OVER THE CYCLONE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT
DATA...AND ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL BE FLYING INTO INGRID OVERNIGHT.
THE OBSERVED SHEAR HAS NOT BEEN AN IMPEDIMENT TO STEADY
STRENGTHENING...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN IMPROVING
UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS BOTH SHOW STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH
BEFORE LANDFALL...AND SO DOES THE NHC FORECAST. AFTER LANDFALL...
INGRID SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS AS IT MOVES
INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. 

AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES SHOW LITTLE NET MOTION OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. AS THE BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE NORTH MOVES EASTWARD...A
SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS GENERAL
TREND...THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE TIMING AND
SHARPNESS OF THE WESTWARD TURN. THE GFS IS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A WIDER TURN WHILE THE HWRF HAS ONE OF THE
TRACKS FARTHEST TO THE LEFT. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
ECMWF. IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THE EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA REMAINS QUITE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. 
 
IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED WIND THREAT...THE COMBINATION OF THE
MOIST FLOW FROM BOTH INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...AND LIFE-
THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT
HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0300Z 19.3N  95.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 20.0N  95.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 21.1N  95.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 21.9N  96.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 22.3N  97.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 22.4N  99.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 96H  18/0000Z 22.0N 100.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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