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Tropical Storm HUMBERTO (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013
1100 AM AST MON SEP 16 2013
 
DEEP CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTO
HAS BEEN BURSTING DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...AND THE DISTANCE
BETWEEN THE CONVECTION AND THE CENTER HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
DECREASING. THE SYSTEM NOW HAS ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO
BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ADVISORIES ON HUMBERTO HAVE
BEEN RESTARTED.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 35 KT BASED ON
TWO ASCAT PASSES FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS THAT INDICATED WINDS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE.
 
A CONSERVATIVE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/06. HUMBERTO IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO A COL AREA IN BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER ATLANTIC
CANADA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN AT A SLOW FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE HUMBERTO TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN ACCELERE
NORTHEASTWARD. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCA AND REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SLOWER AND
MORE-EASTERLY ECWMF AND THE FASTER AND MORE-WESTERLY GFS.
 
VERY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDDLE- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO
RELAX SOME AS THE TROUGH CUTS OFF AND SHIFTS GENERALLY SOUTHWARD OF
THE CYCLONE. THE RELATIVE RELAXATION IN SHEAR FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS...ALONG WITH A TRACK OVER WARMER WATERS...SHOULD
ALLOW HUMBERTO TO INTENSIFY A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ON
DAYS 3-5 IS LIKELY TO SPEED UP THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO HAVE OCCURRED BY DAY 5. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS AND
LGEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/1500Z 27.2N  43.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 28.2N  43.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 29.5N  44.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 30.2N  44.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  18/1200Z 31.1N  45.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  19/1200Z 33.1N  44.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  20/1200Z 36.7N  40.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  21/1200Z 44.7N  32.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
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