ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172012 800 AM PDT SAT NOV 03 2012 THE CENTER OF ROSA HAS BECOME EXPOSED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CIRRUS DEBRIS CLOUDS...THE REMNANTS OF A FORMER CONVECTIVE BURST. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 35 KT...IN LINE WITH THE RECENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES. ROSA WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLUDGEONED BY STRONG WESTERLY WIND SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING AND A TRANSITION INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...BETWEEN THE LOWER STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE HIGHER INTENSITY CONSENSUS. ROSA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 4 KT. LOW-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE SLOWLY WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME WOBBLES IN THE TRACK DUE TO HOW MUCH CONVECTION ROSA IS PRODUCING BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...WITH MORE A NORTHWARD WOBBLE OF ROSA LIKELY WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE AND A MORE SOUTHWARD DEVIATION WHEN THE CENTER IS EXPOSED. OVERALL...THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS SHIFTING WESTWARD...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED FOLLOWING THAT TREND. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 12.7N 120.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 12.8N 120.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 13.0N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0000Z 13.3N 121.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z 13.7N 121.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1200Z 14.3N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:45 UTC