ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172012 200 AM PDT SAT NOV 03 2012 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ROSA MAINTAINING A SHEARED SCENE TYPE THIS MORNING...WITH A SMALL AREA OF -80C OVERSHOOTING COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE PARTLY EXPOSED CENTER OF CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...40 KT...DUE TO LITTLE OR NO CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN FROM 6 HOURS AGO. UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCT AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW ROSA MOVING IN AN UNFORGIVING ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF 30-40 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND AN INTRUDING DRY/STABLE MARINE-LAYER AIR MASS. THESE TWO INHIBITING CONTRIBUTIONS SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN ROSA INTO A DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND ULTIMATELY TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ALSO REFLECTS DISSIPATION BY DAY 4 WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A PERSISTENT 260/4...OR TOWARD THE WEST. A LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC NARROW RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS STEERING THE CYCLONE ON ITS CURRENT HEADING. A MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ROSA WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE 24 HOUR PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL STORM. THE GUIDANCE SPREAD...UNFORTUNATELY...REMAINS QUITE LARGE. THE UKMET IS SHOWING A FLATTER TRACK...A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH TIME...WHILE THE GFS IS TO THE FAR RIGHT OF THE MODEL CLUSTER AND INDICATES A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IN 12 HOURS. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST RESEMBLES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED OUTLIERS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 12.6N 119.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 12.7N 120.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 12.8N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1800Z 13.1N 120.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0600Z 13.5N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0600Z 14.3N 122.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:45 UTC