ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172012 200 PM PDT FRI NOV 02 2012 THE CENTER OF ROSA HAS BECOME EXPOSED THIS AFTERNOON...AN INDICATION THAT MODERATE-TO-STRONG SHEAR IS BECOMING DETRIMENTAL TO THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...ASCAT DATA FROM 1805 UTC DID SHOW QUITE A FEW WIND VECTORS OF 35 KT OR GREATER...SUGGESTING PEAK WINDS OF 40 KT. THE LATTER VALUE WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING SHEAR FORECAST BY ALL MODELS...ROSA WILL LIKELY WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SATURDAY...AND TO A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...A BIT BELOW THE CONSENSUS. ASCAT AND WINDSAT DATA SHOW THAT ROSA HAS BEEN MOVING A BIT FASTER TO THE SOUTHWEST...235/3. LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM SHOULD CAUSE ROSA TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOTICEABLY SHIFTED WESTWARD SINCE 6H AGO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THAT TREND...STAYING A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 12.7N 119.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 12.6N 119.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 12.6N 119.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 12.8N 120.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1800Z 13.1N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z 14.0N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1800Z 15.0N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:45 UTC