ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172012 200 AM PDT FRI NOV 02 2012 BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0533 UTC...ROSA IS ONLY PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS IN ITS NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND HAS MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 40 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE CUTTING INTO THE CYCLONE BELOW THE CIRRUS LAYER...AND THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 20 KT. WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL ONLY INCREASE FROM THIS POINT FORWARD AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND ROSA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT AMONG THE INTENSITY AND GLOBAL MODELS THAT ROSA WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE BY DAY 5. ROSA HAS BEEN MEANDERING LATELY...BUT THE ASCAT CENTER FIX SUGGESTS THAT THE LONGER-TERM MOTION IS A SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT. A WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 21N SHOULD NUDGE ROSA SOUTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN BY DAY 3 AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH DEEPENS WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND ROSA SHOULD RESPOND BY GRADUALLY TURNING NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME ACCELERATION. THE SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK MODELS HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE...ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD ON THIS CYCLE. THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN SHIFTED SOUTHWESTWARD AND LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS MODEL AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 13.3N 118.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 13.1N 118.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 13.0N 118.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 13.0N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 13.2N 119.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0600Z 14.0N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0600Z 15.5N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:45 UTC