ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172012 800 AM PDT THU NOV 01 2012 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ROSA HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED WITH ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME LESS DEFINED...WITH THE CENTER REMAINING ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 55 KT...AND THE INITIAL WINDS ARE BROUGHT DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 45 KT. MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY A SLOW WEAKENING IS LIKELY. THE STORM COULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER 48H DUE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR...AS LONG AS IT DOES NOT END UP FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL NHC PREDICTION CALLS FOR BASICALLY THE SAME GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...NEAR THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS STILL MORE LIKELY THAN NOT IN ABOUT 72H DUE TO STRONG SHEAR. THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF MICROWAVE DATA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT IT DOES APPEAR LIKE THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DRIFTING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT ON THE STORM DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 36H OR SO DUE TO NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL STEERING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE BASIN. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE CONTINUES TO BE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH INFLUENCES HOW QUICKLY ROSA TURNS TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE LOW. THERE HAVE BEEN NO NOTABLE SHIFTS IN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AT THE LONGER RANGES...SO THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 13.9N 118.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 13.8N 118.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 13.6N 118.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 13.4N 118.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 13.5N 118.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 14.2N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z 15.5N 119.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1200Z 17.5N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:45 UTC