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Hurricane PAUL (Text)

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HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
1100 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2012
 
...HURRICANE PAUL HEADING TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 113.1W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ABREOJOS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED...
IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS...BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST
OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA..PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.1 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD TURN ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAUL SHOULD BE NEAR OR ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  PAUL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST...BUT PAUL IS FORECAST
TO REACH THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS A HURRICANE.  PAUL IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY.
 
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
 
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.  NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
 
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